IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report: Key Cryosphere Related Takeaways

 

The IPCC finalised the Synthesis Report for the Sixth Assessment Report during the Panel's 58th Session held in Interlaken, Switzerland during March 13-19, 2023. The report highlights that the global surface temperature has increased by 1.1°C in the last decade, and explains the implications of this rise in the Cryosphere along with its implications on people and ecosystems. The report predicts that drastic reductions in the greenhouse gas emissions can only restrict disastrous changes post 2050 but advises context-based adaptation and transformative governance to reduce the associated risks of climate change to a great extent.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 6^th Assessment Resource (AR6) Synthesis Report has revealed that the global surface temperature has increased by 1.1°C during 2011-2020, as compared to 1850-1900 levels (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2023). The Paris Agreement outlined in Conference of the Parties (CoP) 21 presented a sustainable path by taking up the target to limit the rise in temperature to 1.5°C by the end of this century. Greenhouse gases, majorly contributed by human activities are the majorly responsible for this increase and as per the report the major sources are fossil fuels, industrial processes, urban systems, transportation, and agricultural emissions, etc.

Out of the total cumulative net CO₂ emissions since 1850, 42 per cent of the emissions were contributed during 1990-2019. The recent rise in temperature has had negative impacts on the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, biosphere, weather, ecosystems, amongst others and it is the vulnerable communities, who in all the ecosystems, are at the receiving ends of disastrous consequences of this climate change. For instance, the mortalities from droughts, storms, floods were almost 15 times more in the vulnerable regions as compared to other regions during 2010-2020. This highlights the significance of the principle of ‘Climate Equity’ in the discourse of climate change. The other implications of climate change faced by the world include a rise in sea level on an average of 3.7 mm per year (2006-2018); ocean warming; climate extremes, namely heatwave, erratic precipitation, cyclones, cold waves; impact on hydrology due to glacial and ice-sheet retreat in mountains, Polar ecosystems; water scarcity (almost 50 per cent of world’s population faces the threat of severe water scarcity) agricultural and health crisis; food insecurity and many more. Adaptation and mitigation may act as resolves to the issue of climate change. However, adaptation gaps, contextual limitations to adaptation, maladaptation, insufficient financial flows, technology deficits, insufficient research and political will, and  lack of citizen engagement are becoming reasons for not only abrupt but also irreversible changes that might bring many systems on the verge of collapse.

IPCC Findings on Impact of Climate Change in Cryosphere

Current Status

Each and every being on the earth is directly or indirectly connected to the well-being of oceans and cryosphere. In the Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, a part of IPCC 6^th Assessment cycle, cryosphere is defined as the ‘components of the Earth System at and below the land and ocean surface that are frozen, including snow cover, glaciers, ice sheets, ice shelves, icebergs, sea ice, lake ice, river ice, permafrost, and seasonally frozen ground’. Global warming has led to the shrinking of the cryosphere to a large extent in the last decade. There has been a significant impact such as loss in the thickness of ice sheets, glaciers, snow covers; rise in permafrost thawing; extinction of Arctic sea ice. From 2006-2015, the Antarctic Icesheets has lost the ice mass at the rate of 155 ± 19 Gt per year. A rise in surface air temperature leading to surface melting has been causing these losses majorly. In almost all the high mountain regions including the Himalaya, the snow cover and glacial extents have been facing declines in recent decades. The trend of rise in Permafrost temperatures has been at record levels across the polar and high mountain areas since the 1980s. For instance, the quantity of organic carbon has reached to 1,460-1,600 Gt in Arctic and boreal permafrost which is double the amount of atmospheric carbon. 

Implications of Climate Change on People and Ecosystems

Glacial retreat, melting of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet and thermal expansion has been leading to an acceleration in the rise of Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL). As per the report from 2006-2015, ice sheets and glacier melt have been acting as the significant source of sea level rise of 1.8 mm per year and anthropogenic forcing is the dominant cause for it since 1970. This has also led to an increase in extreme sea level events causing coastal hazards such as cyclones, extreme waves, storm surges. Wildfires, permafrost thaws, impact on mountain ecology are the pertinent issues that cryospheric regions have been facing. Coastal ecosystems such as coastal wetlands provide protection to coastlines from impending disasters such as sea level rise, change in weather patterns along with being carbon sinks. However, in the past hundred years, almost 50 per cent of wetlands have been lost releasing 0.04-1.46 Gt of carbon per year. Change in cryosphere has also led to a change in hydrology, engendering the phenomenon of plant and animals’ species shift. Recent examples of change in the seasonal and production behavior of certain Arctic zooplanktons and shift in the spread of Antarctic krill in the Southern Atlantic demonstrate the phenomenon of species shift due to change in climatic dynamics. The report highlights that the rate of poleward shift of certain marine species since the 1950s has been around 52 ± 33 km per decade. This affects the whole food web, ecosystem, and biodiversity altogether.

Cryospheric shrinking in Polar Regions like Arctic, Himalayas has brought with itself several other negative externalities such as food insecurity, water scarcity, health issues, threat to indigenous communities, infrastructural issues, etc. For instance in the Himalaya, a retreat in glacier and snow cover has led to a reduction in agricultural yields. In terms of impacts on health, change in cryosphere also leads to rise in the risk related to food and water-borne diseases compounding the severity of issues such as malnutrition, psychological challenges, water scarcity, amongst others. Indigenous communities remain most vulnerable to these risks. Even the adaptation at the infrastructural level for resilience has been facing the problem of funding, skilling, institutional support, etc. Along with this the opening of new routes in cryospheric regions due to thawing of sea ice does not only open up the new frontiers for geopolitics but also poses risks such as fear of introduction of invasive species, pollution, threat to marine ecosystems, etc. Similarly, due to changes in hydrological systems, hydropower systems face imminent threats due to variability in availability of water and linked disasters such as  Glacial lake outburst that threaten the hydropower projects at downstream (Chandrashekhar, 2022).The report also mentions that Glacial and snow cover retreat has impacted the high mountain aesthetics and culture negatively.

 Future Predictions and Associated Risks

With the current rate of increase in surface air temperature, decline in snow, sea ice cover, glacial retreat and permafrost thaw would continue to be the predominant leading to many possible hazards and change in river ecosystems. Smaller glaciers are projected to lose 80 per cent of their ice mass by 2100 in the scenario of rapid emissions. If the emissions continue to increase with this rate, near 70 per cent of surface level permafrost could be lost by 2100. It could even lead to irreversible ice-sheet instability in the polar regions. Antarctic sea ice is predicted to be the largest contributor to sea level rise by the end of 21^st century. Similarly, 20 per cent of land in the Arctic faces the threat of abrupt permafrost thaw with associated risks such as ground subsidence, drying up of soil, wildfires, etc. The severity of other imminent threats such as instability of slopes, number of glacial lakes and floods due to their breach, landslides, snow avalanches, increase in coastal waves and tidal amplitude, species shifting, loss to biodiversity, and other extreme sea level events may be increased.

The Special Interest Problem 

 

Consensus Building is one of the most critical aspects of effective climate action. The recently released IPCC AR6 Report was watered down from its original version as the Report Summary for policymakers needs the unanimous buy-in from delegates of all 195 nations, thus, giving a chance to policymakers to pursue intense negotiations (Inside Climate News, 2023). However, climate negotiations can be challenging due to the involvement of different political and financial interests of the countries. Representatives from several countries negotiated ferociously to remove or water down specific references, such as the grave environmental cost of fossil fuels and meat consumption. For instance, Brazil and Argentina got the negative effect of the consumption of meat on the environment removed successfully. 

Lili Fuhr, Deputy Director at the Center for International Environmental Law, a nonprofit that observed the confidential negotiations, revealed that governments come to the IPCC approval sessions with legitimate concerns and vested interests. Some countries, such as China, Saudi Arabia, and India, made several attempts to water down the reference to fossil fuels as the main causative factor behind global warming. The continued focus on carbon capture and removal technologies can divert resources from proven climate solutions such as renewable energy. As per Axios, a leading international news service, even the clear language regarding the significance and benefits of renewable energy was replaced with confusing technical jargon. Some reports also found that the USA negotiated to cut down the reference of the International Financial Gap essential to be bridged for climate adaptation and mitigation. The prominent climate scientist James Hansen calls this the Special Interest Problem, highlighting the urgent need to address it. As per Michael Thomas, the writer for Distilled, the issue of countries negotiating under the influence of corporate interests is so rampant that scientists wanted to include vested interests as one of the limiting factors for effective transformation (Inside Climate News, 2023).

Way Forward

Although the report predicts that drastic changes in the greenhouse gas emissions can only restrict disastrous changes post 2050. Incremental steps such as context-based adaptation and transformative governance can reduce the risk to a great extent. Slowing of the rate of cryosphere change is much desired as it can extend the window of opportunity to take resilient and effective actions to reverse the trajectory of climate change. Countries within the framework of international cooperation must act to fulfill their commitments under Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, taken up by the countries in the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The report also underlines that those countries and people who are least capable to respond are those that are highly exposed and vulnerable. In this scenario, the resolve on climate financing from the developed world must be fulfilled and adherence to the promises under Green Climate Fund should be non-negotiable. Along with financial flows, there should also be a development of reliable technologies that can facilitate the transition of the least developed and developing countries towards cost-effective adaptation and mitigation measures, fulfilling the ambition of the world to limit the rise in temperature to 1.5° C by the end of this century.

References

Chandrashekhar, V. (2022). How climate change is threatening Himalayan hydropower projects:https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/times-special/how-climate-change-is-threatening-himalayan-hydropower-projects/articleshow/94545599.cms

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2023). Synthesis Report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6).

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2019). The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate.

Inside Climate News . (2023, March 28). Corporate Interests ‘Watered Down’ the Latest IPCC Climate Report, Investigations Find. Retrieved from Inside Climate News :https://insideclimatenews.org/news/28032023/corporate-interests-watered-down-the-latest-ipcc-climate-report-investigations-find/