Is Melting Permafrost an Unfreezing of Doom?
As the Earth's temperature continues to rise, the permafrost is thawing and the organic matter within it is degrading leading to the release of carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere. Additionally with continued thawing, the natural gases containing carbon components trapped underneath the permafrost will also be released, potentially setting off an uncontrollable cycle of permafrost carbon release and increased global warming. To prevent these far-reaching consequences, it is imperative that countries worldwide make a collective effort and implement strict policies to address the issue of permafrost thaw.
Permafrost, a permanently frozen layer of Earth’s surface, is made of a combination of soil, rocks and sand bound by ice all year long. It is predominantly found in the Arctic region, present in parts of Alaska, Canada, Russia, and Eastern Europe. However, it is also present in high altitude mountains such as the Alps, the Himalaya, and the Andes (National Geographic, 2022) and some parts of ice-free areas of Antarctica. Permafrost accounts for 17 per cent of Earth’s exposed land surface and 25 per cent of Northern hemisphere (Gruber, 2012).
Permafrost melting in the Arctic region of Svalbard, Norway.
Image Source: Jeff Vangua/Getty/NRDC
Permafrost has some peculiar characteristics - it is perennially frozen soil of the Earth, that holds vast amount of organic matter and is believed to be the largest reservoir of carbon and mercury (Scientific American, 2018). According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrative (NOAA), the Arctic is warming at twice the global average rate since 2000 resulting in rapid thawing of permafrost (NOAA, 2020).
With increased permafrost thawing, bacteria will decompose organic matter present in permafrost and release methane and carbon dioxide, which may lead to a positive feedback loop and further amplify global warming (ICCI, 2015). This could become a tipping point and trigger an uncontrollable cycle of permafrost carbon release (France Culture, 2018). Uncertainties remain regarding size of carbon stock and potential methane emissions (Scientific American, 2021). It must be noted here that the permafrost layer has natural gas trapped underneath that can be a source of additional methane emissions in case of permafrost thawing. The effects of permafrost degradation are not only contained within the Arctic but threaten to spill across boundaries and affect people beyond the region.
Why Permafrost Thawing is a Matter of Concern
Regions, with permafrost, face a dual threat to civilian, industrial and strategic infrastructure due to ongoing and potential thawing. The Alps, home to critical avalanche control systems, are expected to suffer significant damage from permafrost thaw, endangering the safety of locals and tourists (Swissinfo, 2020). Meanwhile in the Arctic, fire stations have collapsed, roads and houses have become unstable and coastal communities have been forced to relocate to safer areas (IPCC, 2019). Alarmingly, roughly 70 per cent of the region's infrastructure lies in areas where permafrost thaw is projected to intensify by 2050. Russian hydrocarbon extraction fields in the Arctic face severe damage risks of up to 45 per cent by 2050 while pipelines such as the Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean (ESPO) and Trans-Alaska Pipeline System (TASP) also face significant risk (Nature Communications, 2018). Infrastructure on degraded permafrost could potentially have devastating impacts on energy security, given that TASP is critical to Alaska's economy (US Department of Defense, 2019), and Yamal-Nenets and ESPO pipelines are significant to Russia's energy security and hydrocarbon industry (Reuters, 2019).
Apart from the direct impact on infrastructure, permafrost thaw could lead to serious health challenges. As permafrost releases its long-buried elements into the environment, along with dangerous greenhouse gases toxic mercury and thousand-year-old viruses could be released affecting people in the region and beyond (France Culture, 2018). These challenges could further exacerbate broader concerns including food insecurity due to increased mercury levels and competition over resources among affected populations (The Arctic Institute, 2020). In 2016, Siberia witnessed an anthrax outbreak that served as a reminder of the lurking danger posed by thawing permafrost, which had exposed a reindeer carcass infected with the deadly bacteria from decades ago. However, the uncertainty surrounding the likelihood of potential outbreaks from other diseases such as smallpox and the Spanish flu of 1918, known to exist in frozen tundra and mass graves of the afflicted, continues to perplex the scientific community.
The disappearance of permafrost causes a change in the vegetation and water cycle, which affects the ecosystem of reindeer herds and fractures communities dependant on them. For instance, the Inuit hunting culture is directly threatened by changes in the animal population and physical geography of the environment. Melting permafrost has also led to the relocation of villagers along the Bering and Chukchi coasts because of coastal erosion.
Climate change has security implications and should therefore be integrated into security assessments, policies, and structures. Checking global warming at 1.5˚C by 2,100 could slow permafrost thaw and protect people and infrastructure (IPCC, 2018). However, achieving this goal will require eliminating greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 or even 2044, which remains a global challenge (Welch, 2019).
Conclusion
The IPCC did not include permafrost carbon emissions into its projections until 2018, leading to underestimation of global warming in previous forecasts. Climate action plans submitted by countries that signed the Paris Agreement should account for the impact of permafrost thaw as scientists continue to improve their understanding of it. However, combating permafrost thaw is a daunting taskas it requires a collective effort from people and countries across the globe.
References
Stephan Gruber (2012), “Derivation and analysis of a high-resolution estimate of global permafrost zonation,” The Cryosphere.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2019), Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, Geneva, IPCC, 2019.
Craig Welch (2019), “Artic permafrost is thawing fast: That affects us all,” National Geographic
Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate.
J. Hjort et al. (2018), “Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century,” Nature Communications
US Department of Defense (2019), Report on Effects of a Changing Climate to the Department of Defense, Washington DC, US Department of Defense.
Reuters (2019), As Russia expands Pacific pipeline, a third of oil exports go East
Caitlin Werrell and Francisco Femia (2019), The Responsibility to Prepare and Prevent. A climate security governance framework for the 21st century (Washington DC: The Center for Climate and Security.
Scientific American (2021), How Much Worse Will Thawing Arctic Permafrost Make Climate Change? https://www.
Scientifc American (2016), Thawing Permafrost would Accelerate Global Warming.https://www.
NOAA (2020), Arctic air temperatures continue a long-term warming streak.
https://www.climate.gov/news-
ICCI (2015), Thresholds and Closing Windows: Risks of Irreversible Cryosphere Climate Change. https://iccinet.org/
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